Missouri’s net farm income is predicted to fall in 2023 following a record-setting 2022, according to the spring 2023 Missouri Farm Income Outlook report.

The report, released by the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri, provides comprehensive insights that can equip industry stakeholders and policymakers with information to understand the state-level impacts of economic factors, weather and policy initiatives on the agriculture industry. One factor that could explain this projected drop in farm income is the state’s livestock receipts, which were impacted by the country-wide drought that reduced cattle inventories and supported Missouri marketings, which is the physical sale of live animals, said RaFF interim director Scott Brown.

“Our report projects that Missouri net farm income is tapering off from a record high in 2022,” Brown said. “Production expenses remain stubbornly high while cash receipts decline under the assumption of average weather resulting in a squeeze to Missouri producers’ bottom line. Missouri follows the national projection for a downward trend in the near term.”

In the report, a 14% decrease in net farm income is forecasted to occur across the state’s agriculture industry this year, compared to a projected 19% decrease in U.S. net farm income.

The report’s key predictions include:

• Crop receipts are projected to decrease by $430 million in 2023. Statewide-planted acres sit at 14 million with soybeans making up nearly 6 million acres. Corn-planted area remains flat while hay-, wheat- and rice-planted acres experience slight increases from 2022 to 2023.
• Livestock receipts are expected to decrease by $400 million in 2023.
• Inventories for cattle, hogs and poultry make a rebound from 2022.
• Production expenses are forecast to increase by $230 million in 2023, despite a slight decline in fertilizer, feed and fuel costs.

“RaFF’s state-level insights are critical for decisionmakers,” said Brown, who is also an associate extension professor of markets and policy in the College of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources. “By understanding how farmers’ and rural communities’ incomes are impacted by various factors, these individuals can be equipped with insights for program and policy discussions.”

Editor’s Note: The Missouri Farm Income Outlook and all associated data tables are available on the center’s website.

About RaFF: The MU Farm and Rural Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) is a Congressionally funded research policy center that implements objective analysis to inform decisionmakers on issues affecting farm and rural finances using a network of state and regional experts and state farm income models. Learn more online at ruralandfarmfinance.com.